Episode 10 – Retail Recap Back in Business: Market Insights and Trends

In this episode, hosts Jeremy Mercer, Rob Franks, and Secure Net Lease’s Bob Moorhead are back with a packed start to 2026. From surging 7-Eleven demand to sublease fallout and Dallas’ ridiculous retail construction pipeline, the team covers all the major trends so far this year.

Key Topics Covered:

7-Eleven, Chipotle & Starbucks Market Insights

• 7-Eleven listings dropped sharply from 77 to 49 month-over-month, driven by exchange buyers and year-end bonus depreciation closings. Median price now sits at $8M with a 5.15% median cap rate.
• Chipotle shows positive absorption with inventory holding steady near 53 listings and median cap rates around 5%. High demand continues, especially for locations with “Chipotlane” drive-thrus.
• Starbucks listings declined from 138 to 113, signaling improving absorption. Though cap rates are still hovering near 6%, the brand is investing heavily in remodels—targeting 1,000 sites in 2026.

Protein Wars
From Chipotle’s double protein bowls to Starbucks pushing protein in drinks, the team discusses how weight-loss drugs like GLP-1s are reshaping consumer preferences—and how major QSR tenants are responding.

Financing Outlook
The 10-year Treasury remains sticky in the 4.0%–4.25% range. Lenders are quoting shorter 5-year terms, and rate cuts may be limited. Still, lower construction and bridge loan costs could drive more development in 2026.

Retail Headlines & Closures

• Wingstop hits 3,000 locations, with 800 added since 2023.
• Tractor Supply celebrates 2,400 stores with plans for 100 more.
• Aldi targets 180 new locations and a revamped e-comm rollout.
• Wendy’s will close 300 stores, while GameStop will shutter 470—including 45 in Texas.
• Salad & Go exits Texas entirely; Dallas sites may backfill quickly with drive-thru users like Dutch Bros and 7 Brew.

Retail Real Estate in Dallas
The team breaks down data from the ICSC New York show and Weitzman’s Texas Retail Forecast:

• DFW retail occupancy hit a record 95.3% in 2025.
• Grocery-anchored centers are booming, with 18 new openings in 2025 and 34 more in the pipeline.
• Power centers are making a comeback, with 6–8 currently under construction—unheard of in most U.S. markets.

Tenant Strategy & Risk Management
Advice for investors with $3–4M budgets: consider ground leases with strong credit (e.g., Murphy, Circle K, Starbucks) over high-yield, high-risk tenants like 1-5 unit franchisee operators. The team also discusses the growing threat of theft in vacant buildings—and why site security is now essential.

Card Shops & Cultural Trends
A surprise retail category re-emerges: collectible card shops. New concepts like Card Vault, Wax, and Cards in a Box are opening across DFW, reflecting nostalgic demand—and serious spend.

From market data to mall activations, Episode 10 kicks off the year with optimism, analysis, and a few protein-packed predictions for what’s next in retail real estate.

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